Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.492648 24.662876 27.094995 30.053940 33.600927 37.776118 43.157110
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.256015 22.044165 25.419244 29.915398 35.934328 44.026946 56.374609
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.194300 20.310023 24.305638 30.027444 38.449723 51.291469 74.796695
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.578821 18.825913 23.172763 29.759395 40.252105 58.187673 97.863766
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.329794 17.624893 22.187969 29.429904 41.782068 65.278380 129.038934
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.353189 16.662855 21.376940 29.161749 43.280620 73.068223 174.965504
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.570465 15.880394 20.710652 28.973197 44.833682 81.927005 249.257366
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.795264 15.031987 19.838409 28.275489 45.185608 88.187950 343.495318
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.540151 14.916902 20.076497 29.535885 49.986364 111.017302 883.433645
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.013649 14.347284 19.522124 29.246343 51.233535 124.050332 2386.510828
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.617036 13.944517 19.197455 29.336156 53.443754 144.080059 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.292024 13.627529 18.982080 29.601522 56.226445 172.211240 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.968286 13.296642 18.722589 29.760956 58.898991 207.826144 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.597077 12.867713 18.257629 29.424012 60.042042 238.435131 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.309235 12.556146 17.974506 29.442326 62.367431 291.386561 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.001295 12.194440 17.573188 29.142715 63.571499 343.394603 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.712785 11.849736 17.177992 28.806733 64.573162 406.036001 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.454757 11.542783 16.830996 28.540084 65.782437 493.839202 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.225204 11.272339 16.533542 28.354674 67.288344 627.135436 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.952021 10.917011 16.055718 27.680119 66.600540 697.456760 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.915839 10.959249 16.331128 28.894730 74.635817 1821.025368 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.714689 10.710605 16.030960 28.615325 75.806525 3041.988375 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.564358 10.543024 15.878251 28.701743 78.906682 12419.514412 NaN